THE TYLENOL MURDERS

THE TYLENOL MURDERS     Crime Scene     The Cover-up     Mafia Ties     Persons of Interest     Posse Comitatus     The Players     Marketing Tylenol     Tylenol Lawsuits     J&J Liability     News      
The Truth
1975 Murder Cover-up
Copycats
Cover-up 2009
Cyanide
Evidence Destroyed
Frank's Finer Foods
The Seventh Tylenol Bottle
The Eighth Tylenol Bottle
Unknown Pharmacy
Motives Ignored
Investigate the Cover up
THE TYLENOL MURDERS COVER-UP
 

 
The failures of the Tylenol murders investigations in 1982 and 1986 were the result of conspiracy by Johnson & Johnson, the Illinois Attorney General, FBI and FDA to cover up the truth about the unsecured and unsafe pharmaceutical distribution system.
 
 
WHAT YOU HAVE NOT BEEN TOLD ABOUT THE TYLENOL MURDERS
 
 
 
 
What Did Johnson & Johnson Really Know?
 
Johnson & Johnson executives must have known shortly after learning about the Chicago poisonings that the Tylenol tampering occurred during distribution, yet they insisted from the very start that the Tylenol capsules had been adulterated at Chicago area retail stores.
 
J&J executives, FDA officials, and Tylenol Task Force agents claimed it was some "nut" or "psycho" or "madman" who went into an unknown number of local food and drug stores, took an unknown number of Tylenol bottles from the shelves, and filled a random number of Extra-Strength Tylenol capsules with cyanide. Their insistence that Tylenol capsules had been adulterated by some "madman" at local Chicago area stores was part of a marketing campaign designed to take the focus off Johnson & Johnson.
 
Not only did J&J executives know the Tylenol had been adulterated during distribution, they had a pretty good idea as to exactly where the capsules were poisoned. It's easily established that officials knew the Tyelnol capsules were contaminated during distribution, not at the local retail stores as they claimed, by simply looking at the manner in which J&J conducted the recall.
 
 
If Tylenol capsules were adulterated at local retail stores, how would the recall be conducted?
 
It's implausible that a person who would indiscriminately pepper Chicago area stores with Tylenol bottles containing random quantities of cyanide laced capsules would target only Tylenol from one or two specific lots.
 
Upon learning about the poisoned Tylenol, a reasonable person would have assumed the capsules from any lot might contain the lethal pills. Officials who believed a madman was running loose near Chicago with a deadly arsenal of Tylenol capsules would have wanted to recall all Tylenol capsules from all stores in and around Chicago.
 
It would have made no sense to conduct a recall in which only the Tylenol bottles from one or two specific lots were returned, leaving the remaining 95% of all Tylenol capsules sitting on the store shelves for customers to buy. Yet that's exactly how J&J implemented their recall.
 
 
How was the recall conducted?
 

Thursday, September 30, 1982

 

On Thursday, September 30, Johnson & Johnson announced a nation-wide recall of 93,400 bottles from lot number MC2880. That recall accounted for 4.7 million, or 4.3%, of the 110 million capsules that were eventually collected and destroyed by J&J; 2.35% of the Extra Strength Tylenol capsules in the marketplace.

 

Even though J&J executives insisted the Tylenol had been contaminated locally, they recalled only a tiny portion of the Tylenol sitting on store shelves throughout the Chicago area. And rather than concentrating the recall locally, J&J recalled Tylenol bottles from lot MC2880 throughout the nation.

 

J&J spokesman Robert Kniffen said, “the company has no evidence any other product was contaminated.” He said the recalled lot consisted of 93,400 bottles containing 50 capsules each, and that they had been distributed in August in all states east of the Mississippi as well as in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and in part of Wyoming.

 

 

Friday, October 1, 1982

 

On Friday, October 1, Johnson & Jonson recalled 171,000 Tylenol bottles from lot number MD1910 after the DuPage County coroner's office confirmed that cyanide laced capsules in a Tylenol bottle from that lot were found in the home of one of the victims.

 

On Friday afternoon, J&J said that all Extra Strength Tylenol capsules should be removed from stores in the Chicago area. If J&J executives actually believed the Tylenol had been adulterated at the local retail stores, they would have made that announcement on Thursday morning. By Friday, J&J's decision to expand the recall in Chicago was academic. Retailers throughout the country had already removed all Tylenol capsules from their store's shelves.

 

Why did Johnson & Johnson executives recall only Extra-Strength Tylenol capsules? If they really believed some madman in the Chicago area was filling Tylenol capsules with cyanide, wouldn’t they have also recalled Regular-Strength Tylenol capsules?

 

 

Tuesday, October 5, 1982

 

Finally, five days after learning that Tylenol capsules had been laced with cyanide, and days after retailers had emptied their stores of Tylenol, Johnson & Johnson reluctantly announced the recall of all Tylenol capsules. It was only after learning that a man in California had been poisoned by an Extra Strength Tylenol capsule laced with strychnine that J&J announced the recall.

 

Johnson & Johnson conducted the recall in the manner of an organization that knew the Tylenol capsules had been adulterated during distribution before the Tylenol bottles had been placed on retail store shelves. J&J executives knew from day one that there was no anonymous madman stalking food and drug stores in the Chicago area.

 
In order to save the Tylenol brand and the "good name" of Johnson & Johnson; J&J executives, FDA officials, and Law enforcement agents decided to cover the Tylenol killer's tracks. The killer was never brought to justice because J&J, the FDA, and leaders of the Tylenol Task Force did not want the killer brought to justice.
 
Based on the activity in the current reactivated investigation, J&J and the FBI still do not want the killer brought to justice.
 
 
Tylenol recall versus Excedrin recall
 
On October 26, 1982, four weeks after the Tylenol murders, the FDA learned that two Colorado residents had been poisoned after consuming Maximum-Strength Excedrin capsules that had been filled with toxic mercuric chloride.
 
Just as they'd done after the Chicago Tylenol poisonings, officials said they believed the Excedrin capsules had been adulterated at the local retail stores. Unlike the Chicago Tylenol poisonings, the FDA recalled all Maximum-Strength Excedrin capsules, but in Colorado only. The focus of the FDA recall was on geography, as one might expect from an FDA that truly believed the capsules had been tampered with at local retail stores in Colorado.

The FDA ordered all Colorado stores to remove Excedrin from the shelves and for people to return any unused Excedrin to the stores so that the federal agency can collect them, said Leroy Gomez, director of the FDA's Denver district office.

 
This immediate local recall of all Maximum-Strength Excedrin capsules in Colorado was much different than the nationwide piecemeal recall that was made after the Tylenol poisonings. The methodologies used were drastically different because FDA officials truly believed the poisoned Excedrin had been adulterated at local retail stores in Colorado. FDA and J&J did not believe the poisoned Tylenol in Chicago had been adulterated at local retail stores. They knew that the cyanide laced Tylenol capsules found in Chicago area stores had actually been adulterated during distribution.
 
 
 
Evidence of the Cover-up goes far beyond the Faulty Recall Methodology
 
 
Evidence was planted to support the bogus approved theory of the Tylenol Murders
When evidence was revealed that contradicted the approved theory, officials manufactured bogus evidence.
Officials lied about the cyanide
Cyanide did not cause the Tylenol capsules to deteriorate as quickly as J&J executives and FDA officials claimed.
 
Officials lied about the distribution of Tylenol and the packaging of Tylenol
Tylenol was not bottled and packaged at the manufacturing plants as J&J executives and FDA officials stated.
 
Officials lied about the Undisclosed Pharmacy
Had officials revealed the identity of the "undisclosed pharmacy" the public would have learned that the Tylenol was not adulterated at local retail stores as was claimed by authorities from J&J, the FDA, and the Tylenol Task Force.
 
Officials lied about the tampering of tamper-resistant packaging
The tamper-resistant packaging on the Tylenol bottles that contained cyanide laced capsules in 1986 were not tampered with as was claimed by J&J executives and officials from the FDA and FBI.
 
Official lied about Frank's Finer Foods involvement
None of the victims bought cyanide laced Tylenol from Frank's Finer Foods as was claimed by J&J, FBI, and FDA.
 
 
 
 
 
THE 1986 TYLENOL MURDER COVER-UP
 

“The bottles were tampered with locally, at the retail store” aspect of the approved theory - the most important component of the cover up - was exposed as a fraud after the 1986 Tylenol murder and then very sloppily covered up by the FBI.

 

Westchester District Attorney Carl Vergari revealed evidence about the tampering that officials from the FBI, FDA, and J&J did not want publicized.

 

 

THE VERGARI PROBLEM

 

The cornerstone of the approved theory of the Tylenol murders deception ran into trouble when on February 18, 1986 Carl Vergari held a press conference and reiterated findings revealed to him by FBI scientists. Vergari said Federal investigators found no evidence that the triple seals on the bottles of tainted Tylenol had been broken after they left the factory, suggesting that they might have been tampered with there (at the factory).

The two bottles that contained contaminated capsules were sent to the FBI labs to determine “to a reasonable degree of certainty” through microscopic examination “whether the metal foil that’s heat-welded to the top of the bottle has been tampered with after it left the factory.”

 

“And they say in both cases that their laboratory examination reveals that it was not,” he said, ”that these bottles were not tampered with after they left the factory; that, ergo, the contamination was done at some time during the manufacturing process before the seal was placed on it.”

 

“What could be clearer than that?” Vergari said.

 

FBI spokesman Jack French declined to confirm or deny Vergari’s assertion. But the fact remained; the FBI’s own evidence didn’t fit the approved theory.  Since the packaging hadn’t been tampered with, the Tylenol capsules had to have been laced with cyanide before the bottles were packaged and before they were placed on the local retail store shelves.

 

Unfortunately, Vergari was missing a critical piece of evidence that kept him from connecting all the dots. He didn't know the Tylenol hadn't been packaged at the factory; it was packaged at repackaging facilities across the country.

 

Athough the evidence made it crystal clear that the Tylenol had not been adulterated at the local retail stores, the FBI refused to deviate from their story. Milt Ahlerich, chief of public affairs for the FBI, said the lack of evidence “does not mean that the tampering did not occur."

 

Here again, despite the FBI’s own evidence showing otherwise, it publically discounted the findings made in their own lab by their own investigators. Ahlerich's statement that “the lack of evidence does not mean that the tampering did not occur,” was especially ridiculous.

 

Some FBI lab guy had obviously not been brought into the loop regarding the approved theory of the Tylenol murders.

 

J&J and FDA officials quickly weighed in on the discussion by making public statements intented to discredit Vergari. Their erroneous statements were considered facts in the minds of the media and the public. Officials from the FDA and J&J said, “The weight of evidence suggested that the crime was a local one.”

 

James Burke appeared on "The Donahue Show" and said:

“We do not have any proof it didn’t happen in the plant or the warehouse, but all logic tells us it didn’t.”

Burke went on to note the ''considerable amount of confusion'' in the case that may have led to an opinion held by Carl Vergari, the Westchester County District Attorney, who had said he believes the pills were probably adulterated at the manufacturing plants.

What confusion was Burke talking about? There wasn't any question that the FBI found absolutely no evidence that any of the tamper resistant seals had been tampered with. If there was any confusion, it was created because of deceptive statements made by Burke, Ahlerich, and FDA Commissioner Frank Young. Statements made by these individuals had no basis in fact and conflicted with the very simple truth that the Tylenol capsules had been adulterated during distribution before any of the deadly capsules were delivered to the local retail stores.

The all out marketing blitz to deceive the public didn’t change the fact that Vergari had spilled the beans. The packaging on the Tylenol bottles had not been tampered with. Evidence from the FBI's own inspection confirmed this fact, creating a real problem for proponents of the approved theory.

To rectify this problem the FBI was forced to take action to quash this troubling truth. So it did what any self respecting government agency would do when faced with a situation such as this. They ordered a bogus second inspection of the tamper resistant packaging and then made up evidence that aligned with the approved theory.

For their second inspection the FBI claimed to have used a sophisticated ultra hi-tech investigatory technique; a technique that the FBI refused to disclose to the public.

The FBI's second inspection wasn't really done with the help of some top secret ultra hi-tech equipment. In fact, there was no second inspection; it wasn’t needed. The only equipment needed to get the desired results from the second inspection were the pen and paper used to produce the press release that seemingly fit the approved theory of the Tylenol murders.

 

 

THE TAMPER-RESISTANT INSPECTION SCAM

 

On February 26, in response to questions about the progress of the case over the previous few weeks, Milt Ahlerich, chief of public affairs for the FBI held a press conference in which he issued this statement:

“Previously undetected signs of tampering have now been discovered using sophisticated scientific examinations. Our examinations have further determined it was possible to invade the bottles after packaging was complete without detection through conventional means of examination.”

 

Ahlerich said the bureau was releasing this information “because of the intense national interest in the case.”

 

Ahlerich refused to comment further, but several "un-named authorities" confirmed that the bureau’s findings applied to both bottles of tainted capsules.

 

Ahlerich’s statement contradicted the original FBI findings that had been revealed publicly by Carl Vergari. Ahlerich offered no explanation and supplied no proof that the packaging had been tampered with, but his statement, which in fact revealed no new information, did seem to comply with the official “approved theory”.

 

A spokesman for Johnson & Johnson jumped all over the FBI’s reversal, saying that the company welcomed the FBI’s finding.

“The company has contended that it was extremely unlikely that the capsules were tainted during the manufacturing process,” said J&J spokesman, James Murray. “We were puzzled all along as to how someone could have breached the three safety seals on the bottle and carton without being detected. We find the FBI statement very interesting.”

 

In my days at Johnson & Johnson, when someone replied to one of my damning emails with statements like - “Your findings are very interesting,” or, “I’m puzzled by these results”, or, “This is very interesting; what does so and so think about this?” - I knew what they really meant was, “I’m not going to confirm or deny anything because I don’t want my lie documented in this email."

 

 

 

Officials Inspect J&J's Manufacturing Facility

 

Days before Ahlerich's press conference, Carl Vergari said he planned to inspect the McNeil plant in Fort Washington, PA, to "look into the possibility that the adulteration had occurred there.” Vergari said, “their review would examine manufacturing processes and might include employee personnel files."

 

Prior to Ahlerich's press conference, a team of investigators, including officials from Vergari's office, visited the McNeil plant. Afterward, Vergari said that the tour by a team of investigators:

“suggested additional broad areas of inquiries.” 

 

Vergari added that the case of the poisoned Extra-Strength Tylenol capsules is "still wide open," but refused to elaborate on the inspection tour of the manufacturing plant on Monday. "We still haven't eliminated anything," Vergari said. "We haven't had evidence to exclude tampering at the factory."

 

Shortly after Vergari determined there were still "broad areas of inquiries" at the factory, and it appeared he would intensify his investigation of McNeil Consumer Products, FBI Director Milt Ahlerich came out with an official FBI statement designed to convince the public that the Tylenol bottles had been tampered with at the local retail stores.

 

One day after Vergari said he hadn't excluded tampering at the McNeil factory, the FBI reversed their initial findings regarding the tamper-resistant packaging. Accordingly, there would be no need for upstart Carl Vergari to pursue his investigation.

 

There were of course plenty of reasons for Vergari to continue to pursue his investigation. The facts hadn’t changed. But the Tylenol murder investigations were never about getting to the truth.

 

Never again would Carl Vergari be heard from with regard to the 1986 Tylenol murder investigation.

 

Two weeks after FDA official William Grigg stated, “Everyone involved believes that this is a local situation,” he’d gotten everybody in line. With the truth obscured, authorities could now focus the public’s attention back on the search for a fictitious unemployed psychopath.

 

 

 

BOTH BOTTLES

 

The FBI’s bogus second inspection of the tamper-resistant packaging silenced any further debate about whether the bottles had been tampered with.

 

But did the bogus statement made by FBI Director Milt Ahlerich really reverse the original findings that the Tylenol bottles had not been tampered with?  I don’t think so.

 

 

FBI officials said the seals on BOTH BOTTLES were tampered with.

 

Every statement regarding the FBI’s inspection of the tamper-resistant seals referenced the plural form of Bottle; BOTTLES.

“Previously undetected signs of tampering have now been discovered using sophisticated scientific examinations,” said FBI spokesman Milt Ahlerich. “Our examinations have further determined it was possible to invade the bottles after packaging was complete without detection through conventional means of examination.”

 

Ahlerich refused to comment further, but, conveniantly, there were several "un-named authorities" hanging out in the crowd to confirm that the bureau’s findings applied to both bottles of tainted capsules; the one involved in the death of Diane Elsroth on February 8, and a bottle discovered four days later at Woolworths.

 

A total of two bottles were found to contain cyanide laced Tylenol capsules in Bronxville, NY, in 1986.

 

Did the FBI make up its official statement regarding the inspection of the tamper resistant seals without considering the simple fact that only one bottle remained sealed?

 

Only the one bottle from the Woolworths store had not been opened. Only one bottle could have provided evidence as to whether the packaging had been tampered with.

 

Obviously, all three of the tamper resistant seals on the victim’s bottle of Tylenol had been removed (tampered with), before the capsules were taken out of the bottle and consumed.

 

How could the FBI decipher that the seals on both bottles had been tampered with; the bottle recovered from Woolworths and the victim’s bottle from the A&P store?  They could not have.

 

Such a feat would have required the FBI to deduce that the tamper-resistant packaging from the victim's bottle of Tylenol had been tampered with after the packaging had gone through the following:

The Tylenol box, sealed with a permanent adhesive, would have been ripped open; the plastic wrap, heat-shrunk to the cap and bottle, torn apart; and the metal foil seal, laminated to the lip of the bottle, peeled off. The killer then would have had to replace all three seals back onto the bottle so that they showed no evidence of tampering.

 

Then, before the victim could remove the deadly capsules from the bottle; all three glued, heat-shrunk and laminated tamper-resistant seals previously removed and replaced by the killer, would have been once again ripped open and torn off the bottle.

 

How exactly was the FBI able to accomplish this miraculous piece of detective work, which allowed them to reverse their initial findings that contradicted the approved theory of the Tylenol murders?

 

It’s painfully obvious that the FBI could not and did not determine the victim’s bottle had been tampered with. The simple truth is that the packaging on neither bottle was tampered with. The cyanide capsules were put into the bottles before the bottles were packaged, before they were delivered to the stores, and before they were placed on the retail store shelves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TAMPERING WITH SEMANTICS

 

Did the FBI really say that the seals on both bottles were tampered with? Or, did the FBI simply dance around the truth when Milt Ahlerich said:

“It was possible to invade the bottles after packaging was complete without detection through conventional means of examination.”

 

Ahlerich didn’t actually say that the bottles had been tampered with; only that they found previously undetected “signs” of tampering, and that it was “possible” the packaging could have been tampered with.

 

The FBI counted on reporters to interpret Ahlerich's statement to mean that the packaging had in fact been tampered with. That's why Ahlerich wouldn’t take any questions; he knew that if he went into specifics his deception would be exposed.

 

To further convince the media that the bottles had actually been tampered with, a few un-named "authorities” hung around after the press conference to confirm that the bureau’s findings applied to both bottles of tainted capsules; even though that's not what Ahlerich really said.

 

Ahlerich made his statement and then refused to offer any further information, or to answer questions, or to correct the inaccurate conclusion that he knew reporters and consumers would make and did make, because of his carefully crafted statement and the statements made to reporters by the FBI's "anonymous authorities."

 

By simply releasing a statement built on deceptive semantics, the FBI was able to manipulate thousands of gullible reporters to falsely conclude that the Tylenol killer had cleverly thwarted the tamper-resistant packaging after the Tylenol bottles had been placed on the store shelves. Therefore, they surmised, the tampering must have occurred locally, at the retail stores.

 

J&J spokesman James Murray welcomed the reversal of the original findings, saying,

“The Company has contended that it was extremely unlikely that the capsules were tainted during the manufacturing process.  We were puzzled all along as to how someone could have breached the three safety seals on the bottle and carton without being detected. We find the FBI statement very interesting.”

 

James Murray and his pals at Johnson & Johnson "were puzzled all along as to how someone could have breached the three safety seals on the bottle and carton without being detected," because the seals were never breached. But of course they already knew that.

 

Murray wasn’t even willing to actually say that the tamper-resistant packaging had in fact been tampered with. He danced around the truth with deceptive semantics just as Milt Ahlerich had.

 

Officials in 1982 and 1986 continuously made statements to convince the public that the only point where the Tylenol could have been tampered with was at the retail stores. The unavoidable truth is that J&J executives, as well as FBI and FDA officials, knew the tampering occurred somewhere within the channel of distribution. Their lies led people with valuable information about the case to remain silent. Their lies allowed the killers to escape.

 
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
 
What Did J&J CEO James Burke Really Know?
 
 
 
 
What Did Attorney General Tyrone Fahner Really Know?
 
 
 
 
What Did the FDA Really Know?
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis in progress

 

 

If the seventh and eight bottles of Tylenol were not actually contaminated with cyanide laced Tylenol, until after they were returned to authorities, then all of the Tylenol bottles purchased from local stores, which authorities admitted contained cyanide laced capsules, were consumed by the victims. That every single bottle contaminated with cyanide laced Tylenol killed one or more persons is an absurd hypothesis. This hypothesis means that the Tylenol killer put poisoned capsules into six bottles, five of the six bottles were purchased in just one day, and every single bottle with contaminated Tylenol that was purchased killed at least one person.

 

 

 

 

 

Bottles 1 through 5 contained cyanide laced Tylenol capsules and caused the deaths of all seven Chicago area victims.

 

The sixth bottle of Tylenol was supposedly removed from Osco Drug in the Schaumburg mall by investigators.

 

It's inconcievable that five out of a total of six bottles containing poisoned capsules were purchased all on the same day, and that every conatminated bottle that was purchased resulted in the death of at least one person. It's unbelievable that those six bottles accounted for all of the cyanide laced Tylenol.

 

Local store managers of Jewel Foods said they were only selling 1 or 2 bottles of Extra-Strength Tylenol per day.

 

 

 

 

At the time of the Tylenol murders, J&J said that there were about 200 million capsules in the marketplace and supply chain. 110 million capsules were returned to J&J after the murders. The number of bottles reportedly returned doesn't align to the number of capsules reportedly returned. The official number of bottles returned was 31 million bottles. That would equal only about 4 capsules per bottle.

 

It was reported that two million capsules, about 40,000 bottles were tested, and only the one unpurchased bottle removed from Osco Drugs was found to contain cyanide laced capsules.

 

The only contaminated bottle of Tylenol "definetly" purchased and returned was identified by J&J after it was returned to a reverse distribution center in Maple Plains MN, with a note attached to it that stated, "this bottle may be contaminated." 

 

The manager from the Jewel Foods where one of the poisoned bottles was purchased said he was only selling only one or two bottles of Extra-Strength Tylenol per day. Managers from other Chicago area stores said the same thing.

 

It's inconceivable that there were only 8 bottles of adulterated Tylenol and that in a period of less than 24 hours, 7 of a total of 8 contaminated bottles were purchased. It's unfathomable that 5 purchased bottles would each lead to at least one death if there were only 7 bottles purchased containing only only 5 to 12 poisoned capsules. 

 

It's inconceivable that every single contaminated Tylenol bottle that was purchased and opened resulted in death; a "hit rate" of 100%.

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

 

 

 

Data for Statistical Analysis

 

 

Number of stores in the Chicaco area in 1982:

 

Jewel-Osco = 200

Dominick's   = 110

Walgreens   = 100

Total           = 410

 

 

Contaminated Tylenol bottles (according to authorities):

 

Number purchased = 7

Number purchased resulting in deaths = 5

Number purchased and then returned (no capsules consumed) = 2

Number of contaminated bottles not purchased = 1

Total = 8

 

Number of stores linked to comtaminated bottles (according to officials) = 8

Bottles per store = 1

 

 

Number of adulterated capsules in each bottle (according to information released by officials):

 

Bottle #1 = 

Bottle #2 = 

Bottle #3 = 

Bottle #4 = 

Bottle #5 = 

Bottle #6 = 

Bottle #7 = 

Bottle #8 = 

 

 

Capsules breakdown (based on data released by officials):

 

Bottle #1:  bottle count = 50;           capsules comsumed = 1;     number poisoned =

Bottle #2:  bottle count = 50;           capsules comsumed = 6;     number poisoned =

Bottle #3:  bottle count = 50;           capsules comsumed = 0;     number poisoned =

Bottle #4:  bottle count = unknown;    capsules comsumed = 1;    number poisoned =

Bottle #5:  bottle count = 50;            capsules comsumed = 7;     number poisoned =

Bottle #6:  bottle count = 24;            capsules comsumed = 1;     number poisoned =

Bottle #7:  bottle count = 50;            capsules comsumed = 0;

Bottle #8:  bottle count = 50;            capsules comsumed = 0;

 

 

Average number of bottles of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules sold per retail store per day:

 

Retail outlets = 11,000;  Institutional outlets = 11,000

 

Tylenol sales per year =

Extra Strength Tylenol capsules sales per year =

Average price per bottle of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules =

 

Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day =

Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day in each Chicago area store =

Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day in the Chicago area =

 

 

Odds that only eight bottles were contaminated:

 

 

 

 

Odds that the official cyanide laced capsule count is not a lie:

 

 

Bottle #1 - THE KELLERMAN BOTTLE

Mary Kellerman took 1 capsule from a 50-count bottle containing 5 cyanide laced Tylenol capsules.

 

Odds that the first capsule from a 50-count bottle would be poisoned if the bottle contained 5 poisoned capsules = 10.00%

5 / 50 = 10.00%

 

Based on this one bottle - Odds that officials lied about the Kellerman bottle and/or the number of bottles that contained cyanide laced Tylenol capsules = 90%

 

 

 

Bottle #2 - THE JANUS BOTTLE

Three Janus family members took 6 capsules; the 50-count bottle initially contained 12 cynaide laced capsules

 

Odds that all 3 Janus's would be poisoned by taking 2 capsules each from a 50-count bottle that initially contained 12 poisoned capsules = 0.06% to 9.65%

 

Odds that officials lied about the number of cyanide laced capsules in the Janus Tylenol bottle = 90.35% to 99.94%

 

 

Favorable Assumption Odds (assumes that 1 out of 2 capsules taken by each of the Janus's was poisoned):

Janus "Favorable Assumption" Odds that officials did NOT lie = 9.65%

 

Odds that 1 of Adam's capsules would be poisoned = 48.00%

(12 / 50 ) + (12 / 50) =  24.00% + 24% = 48.00% 

Odds that 1 of Stanley's capsules would be poisoned = 45.84%

(11 / 48 ) + (11 / 48) =  22.92% + 22.92% = 45.84%

Odds that 1 of Theresa's capsules would be poisoned = 45.84%

(10 / 46 ) + (10 / 46) =  21.74% + 21.74% = 43.48%

Odds that all 3 Janus's would get at least 1 out of 12 poisoned capsules in a 50-count bottle = 9.65%

48.00% x 45.84% x 43.84% =  9.65%

 

 

Least Favorable Assumption (assumes that all 6 capsules taken by the Janus's were poisoned): 

"Least Favorable Assumption" Odds that officials did NOT lie = 0.06%

 

Odds that both of Adam's capsules would be poisoned = 5.34%

12 / 50 = 24.00%;  11 / 49 = 22.45%;  24.00% x 22.45% = 5.34% 

Odds that both of Stanley's capsules would be poisoned = 3.99%

10 / 48 = 20.83%;  9 / 47 = 19.15%;  20.83% x 19.15% = 3.99%

 Odds that both of Theresa's capsules would be poisoned = 2.71%

8 / 46 = 17.39;  7 / 45 = 15.56%;  17.39% x 15.56% = 2.71%

 

Odds that the first 6 capsules taken from a 50-count bottle would countain poison if the bottle initially contained 12 cyanide laced capsules =  0.06%

5.34% x 3.99% x 2.71% = 0.06%

 

 

 

 

Bottle #4 - Mary Reiner;  n/a

 

Bottle #5 - THE McFARLAND BOTTLE

Mary McFarlund took 7 capsules over time, the last 2 were adulterated;  # remaining = 43;  # capsules containing cyanide =   ;

 

 

Bottle #6 = Paula Prince took 1 capsule;  # remaining = 24;  # capsules containing cyanide =   ;

 

Bottle #7 = n/a

Bottle #8 = n/a