Analysis in progress
If the seventh and eight bottles of Tylenol were not actually contaminated with cyanide laced Tylenol, until after they were returned to authorities, then all of the Tylenol bottles purchased from local stores, which authorities admitted contained cyanide laced capsules, were consumed by the victims. That every single bottle contaminated with cyanide laced Tylenol killed one or more persons is an absurd hypothesis. This hypothesis means that the Tylenol killer put poisoned capsules into six bottles, five of the six bottles were purchased in just one day, and every single bottle with contaminated Tylenol that was purchased killed at least one person.
Bottles 1 through 5 contained cyanide laced Tylenol capsules and caused the deaths of all seven Chicago area victims.
The sixth bottle of Tylenol was supposedly removed from Osco Drug in the Schaumburg mall by investigators.
It's inconcievable that five out of a total of six bottles containing poisoned capsules were purchased all on the same day, and that every conatminated bottle that was purchased resulted in the death of at least one person. It's unbelievable that those six bottles accounted for all of the cyanide laced Tylenol.
Local store managers of Jewel Foods said they were only selling 1 or 2 bottles of Extra-Strength Tylenol per day.
At the time of the Tylenol murders, J&J said that there were about 200 million capsules in the marketplace and supply chain. 110 million capsules were returned to J&J after the murders. The number of bottles reportedly returned doesn't align to the number of capsules reportedly returned. The official number of bottles returned was 31 million bottles. That would equal only about 4 capsules per bottle.
It was reported that two million capsules, about 40,000 bottles were tested, and only the one unpurchased bottle removed from Osco Drugs was found to contain cyanide laced capsules.
The only contaminated bottle of Tylenol "definetly" purchased and returned was identified by J&J after it was returned to a reverse distribution center in Maple Plains MN, with a note attached to it that stated, "this bottle may be contaminated."
The manager from the Jewel Foods where one of the poisoned bottles was purchased said he was only selling only one or two bottles of Extra-Strength Tylenol per day. Managers from other Chicago area stores said the same thing.
It's inconceivable that there were only 8 bottles of adulterated Tylenol and that in a period of less than 24 hours, 7 of a total of 8 contaminated bottles were purchased. It's unfathomable that 5 purchased bottles would each lead to at least one death if there were only 7 bottles purchased containing only only 5 to 12 poisoned capsules.
It's inconceivable that every single contaminated Tylenol bottle that was purchased and opened resulted in death; a "hit rate" of 100%.
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Data for Statistical Analysis
Number of stores in the Chicaco area in 1982:
Jewel-Osco = 200
Dominick's = 110
Walgreens = 100
Total = 410
Contaminated Tylenol bottles (according to authorities):
Number purchased = 7
Number purchased resulting in deaths = 5
Number purchased and then returned (no capsules consumed) = 2
Number of contaminated bottles not purchased = 1
Total = 8
Number of stores linked to comtaminated bottles (according to officials) = 8
Bottles per store = 1
Number of adulterated capsules in each bottle (according to information released by officials):
Bottle #1 =
Bottle #2 =
Bottle #3 =
Bottle #4 =
Bottle #5 =
Bottle #6 =
Bottle #7 =
Bottle #8 =
Capsules breakdown (based on data released by officials):
Bottle #1: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 1; number poisoned =
Bottle #2: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 6; number poisoned =
Bottle #3: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 0; number poisoned =
Bottle #4: bottle count = unknown; capsules comsumed = 1; number poisoned =
Bottle #5: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 7; number poisoned =
Bottle #6: bottle count = 24; capsules comsumed = 1; number poisoned =
Bottle #7: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 0;
Bottle #8: bottle count = 50; capsules comsumed = 0;
Average number of bottles of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules sold per retail store per day:
Retail outlets = 11,000; Institutional outlets = 11,000
Tylenol sales per year =
Extra Strength Tylenol capsules sales per year =
Average price per bottle of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules =
Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day =
Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day in each Chicago area store =
Average number of Extra Strength Tylenol capsules bottles sold per day in the Chicago area =
Odds that only eight bottles were contaminated:
Odds that the official cyanide laced capsule count is not a lie:
Bottle #1 - THE KELLERMAN BOTTLE
Mary Kellerman took 1 capsule from a 50-count bottle containing 5 cyanide laced Tylenol capsules.
Odds that the first capsule from a 50-count bottle would be poisoned if the bottle contained 5 poisoned capsules = 10.00%
5 / 50 = 10.00%
Based on this one bottle - Odds that officials lied about the Kellerman bottle and/or the number of bottles that contained cyanide laced Tylenol capsules = 90%
Bottle #2 - THE JANUS BOTTLE
Three Janus family members took 6 capsules; the 50-count bottle initially contained 12 cynaide laced capsules
Odds that all 3 Janus's would be poisoned by taking 2 capsules each from a 50-count bottle that initially contained 12 poisoned capsules = 0.06% to 9.65%
Odds that officials lied about the number of cyanide laced capsules in the Janus Tylenol bottle = 90.35% to 99.94%
Favorable Assumption Odds (assumes that 1 out of 2 capsules taken by each of the Janus's was poisoned):
Janus "Favorable Assumption" Odds that officials did NOT lie = 9.65%
Odds that 1 of Adam's capsules would be poisoned = 48.00%
(12 / 50 ) + (12 / 50) = 24.00% + 24% = 48.00%
Odds that 1 of Stanley's capsules would be poisoned = 45.84%
(11 / 48 ) + (11 / 48) = 22.92% + 22.92% = 45.84%
Odds that 1 of Theresa's capsules would be poisoned = 45.84%
(10 / 46 ) + (10 / 46) = 21.74% + 21.74% = 43.48%
Odds that all 3 Janus's would get at least 1 out of 12 poisoned capsules in a 50-count bottle = 9.65%
48.00% x 45.84% x 43.84% = 9.65%
Least Favorable Assumption (assumes that all 6 capsules taken by the Janus's were poisoned):
"Least Favorable Assumption" Odds that officials did NOT lie = 0.06%
Odds that both of Adam's capsules would be poisoned = 5.34%
12 / 50 = 24.00%; 11 / 49 = 22.45%; 24.00% x 22.45% = 5.34%
Odds that both of Stanley's capsules would be poisoned = 3.99%
10 / 48 = 20.83%; 9 / 47 = 19.15%; 20.83% x 19.15% = 3.99%
Odds that both of Theresa's capsules would be poisoned = 2.71%
8 / 46 = 17.39; 7 / 45 = 15.56%; 17.39% x 15.56% = 2.71%
Odds that the first 6 capsules taken from a 50-count bottle would countain poison if the bottle initially contained 12 cyanide laced capsules = 0.06%
5.34% x 3.99% x 2.71% = 0.06%
Bottle #4 - Mary Reiner; n/a
Bottle #5 - THE McFARLAND BOTTLE
Mary McFarlund took 7 capsules over time, the last 2 were adulterated; # remaining = 43; # capsules containing cyanide = ;
Bottle #6 = Paula Prince took 1 capsule; # remaining = 24; # capsules containing cyanide = ;
Bottle #7 = n/a
Bottle #8 = n/a